1:00 PM IST – Several banks and Many currency experts now believe the Indian Rupee could slowly move closer to ₹90 per US dollar by March 2026. Earlier, most forecasts expected the rupee to stay near 83–85, but the situation has changed. Recent market numbers show less dollar supply, a bigger trade gap, and foreign investors pulling back at times, all adding pressure on the rupee day by day.
Below is a fully researched, quick breakdown of the top 7 real reasons behind the ₹90 scenario, along with the RBI’s exact stance.
Market Snapshot (Quick Stats — Nov Last week, 2025)
| Indicator | Latest (Nov 2025) | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|
| USD/INR (spot) | ~88.6 (Source: NSE) | Very close to the psychological 90 level. |
| Forex Reserves | $687.7 billion | Slightly lower, reducing RBI intervention cushion. |
| Oct 2025 Trade Deficit | $41.68 billion | Sharp jump, pressures the current account. |
| Brent Crude | $62–64/bbl | High enough to keep India’s import bill heavy. |
According to a currency report published on November 21 by Reuters, 2025, the rupee has been trading under pressure as global investors react to US rate signals and a stronger dollar.
Top 7 Reasons Why INR May Touch ₹90 per USD by March 2026
1. Exporters holding their dollars for later
Many exporters are not converting their dollar earnings immediately. They are waiting for a weaker rupee to get more in return. When exporters hold back, this reduces dollar supply in the market, and the rupee naturally weakens.
2. A sharp jump in India’s trade deficit
India’s trade deficit in October 2025 rose to about $41.7 billion, one of the biggest in months. This means India bought far more from abroad than it actually sold. A high deficit increases the need for dollars, which pushes the rupee automatically down.
As reported by The Economic Times, exporter hedging and interbank market activity helped move the rupee recently, but the trade gap remains a key pressure point.
3. A small drop in forex reserves
India’s forex reserves fell to $687.7 billion after weekly declines. Even though reserves are still strong, even a small fall reduces market confidence. Lower reserves also mean the RBI has a slightly smaller shield to manage sudden rupee swings or we say fluctuations.
4. Foreign investors moving money in and out
Most Foreign investors have not been steady this year. Some weeks show inflows, but many see outflows, especially when global news looks risky and presents different narratives. When foreign investors take money out of India, they convert rupees back into dollars. it creates pressure on the currency.
5. A stronger US dollar because of the Fed
The US dollar has been strong because the US Federal Reserve has not yet confirmed when it will start cutting interest rates. A stronger dollar usually means a weaker rupee. Every time the Fed hints at delays, emerging market currencies struggle.
6. India’s oil import bill still remains high
Brent crude staying around $62–64 per barrel keeps India’s import bill heavy. If oil prices go up even a bit, India needs more dollars to pay for oil, again weakening the rupee.
7. Market psychology around the ₹90 level
Round numbers in currency markets act like magnets. Once USD/INR enters the high-88 or 89 zone, traders and hedging models start preparing for a possible ₹90 print. This psychological push can bring the market closer to the level even before fundamentals demand it.
What the RBI Says
- The RBI has clearly said that the value of the rupee is decided by the market, not by the central bank.
- RBI steps in only to control sharp or sudden volatility.
- It does not promise to protect any particular level, including ₹90.
- So if global and domestic factors cause the rupee down, the RBI may allow it as long as the move is smooth. (The natural process)
What to Keep an Eye On (Weekly Checklist)
- Forex reserves — a big weekly fall is a warning sign
- Monthly trade deficit — whether it stays high after October
- FPI inflows/outflows — steady outflows will weaken INR
- Oil price movement — even small increases matter
- Fed announcements — they directly affect the dollar
A move toward ₹90 per USD by March 2026 is not guaranteed, but the risk is very real. The numbers, trends and global situation all point in that direction. For import-heavy businesses, travellers, and companies with dollar exposure, this is a good time to plan and stay alert to weekly updates.
Updated – Rupee (INR) Hits 89.64 Against USD Today: Analysts Say ₹90 Is Now “Days Away,” Not 2026
