10:35 PM IST — The Indian Rupee slipped to 89.64 per US dollar today, pushing the currency to its weakest level ever recorded. On Thursday, most analysts still believed the ₹90 mark would come sometime in early 2026. But today’s sharp move has changed the story completely — many now say ₹90 is no longer a 2026 event. It is a “days away” event. It drops within 24 hours. On 21 November, as per NSE, it was counted at 88.6, but now it is near 90.
This sudden drop has left traders and investors divided into two expectations: the rupee will bounce or weaken further this week.?
Market Snapshot (Nov 22, 2025)
| Indicator | Latest | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|
| USD/INR | 89.64 (as per Morningstar) | Rupee at record low, close to ₹90. |
| Forex Reserves | $687.7 billion | Slight weekly drop limits RBI intervention space. |
| Trade Deficit (Oct 2025) | $41.68 billion | One of the biggest in months; adds dollar demand. |
| Brent Crude | $62–64/bbl | Keeps India’s import bill heavy. |
Why the Rupee Crashed Overnight
According to Reuters (Nov 21 currency report), the rupee has been under pressure due to a stronger US dollar and uneven foreign investor flows. A trader quoted in the report said the break below 88.80, a key support level, triggered additional selling.
The Economic Times also reported strong outflows this week, with exporters holding dollars and FPIs turning cautious.
Taken together, these pressures pushed the rupee directly into the 89+ zone within hours.
Will INR Go Up or Fall Further? Markets Split
Right now, the market is divided into two clear camps:
1. The “₹90 Is Inevitable” Camp (Majority View)
Most currency strategists believe USD/INR will touch or break 90 very soon because:
- Dollar demand from importers is rising.
- Exporters are delaying dollar conversions.
- RBI is not aggressively defending any level.
- FPIs are still pulling money in small but steady amounts.
A report cited by ET and Easemoney last week even projected ₹90 by March 2026, but today’s move suggests the timeline may speed up.
2. The “Small Bounce Possible” Camp (Minority View)
Some analysts say the rupee might recover slightly in the next few days because:
- Domestic inflows are improving.
- RBI may smooth volatility if the move becomes too fast.
- Oil prices have not spiked further.
However, even this group agrees that the recovery, if it comes, will be limited and temporary.
RBI’s Current Stance
The RBI has repeatedly stated that it does not defend any specific level. It only intervenes to prevent sudden volatility.
So if the rupee glides to ₹90 gradually, the RBI may allow the move naturally.
What to Watch This Week
- FPI inflows/outflows
- RBI’s weekly forex data
- Any movement in oil
- US Fed statements
- Exporter and importer dollar demand
Bottom Line
The rupee at 89.64 has brought the ₹90 mark extremely close. Whether the next move is a brief bounce or a direct break, the pressure on the INR remains very real. Traders, travellers, and import-heavy businesses should track the weekly numbers closely — the currency market may move faster than forecasts suggested just a day ago.
